Can Benjamin Netanyahu Survive Another Political Crisis?
Benjamin Netanyahu has built a political career on surviving situations that many leaders would struggle to overcome. Over more than three decades in Israeli politics, he has faced electoral setbacks, political scandals, public protests and challenges from within his own political camp. Yet, time and again, he has managed to remain a powerful figure in the country’s leadership.
However, the latest Israeli election has created another serious challenge for the long-serving prime minister.
The election results published on 27 and 28 October 2026 have left Israel facing political uncertainty. Although Netanyahu’s Likud Party remains the largest single party in the 120-member Knesset, his right-wing political bloc has fallen short of the numbers required to form a government.
At the same time, his opponents have a potential parliamentary majority. Their challenge is to overcome deep ideological differences and agree on a common political strategy.
Former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu’s principal challenger. His supporters believe the election has created an opportunity for political change, but forming a stable government will require difficult negotiations.
The central question is whether Netanyahu’s opponents can work together long enough to remove him from power—or whether Israel’s most experienced political survivor will find another way to remain prime minister.
Israel Election 2026: What Do the Results Mean for Netanyahu?
The initial election figures suggest that Netanyahu has suffered a significant political setback. However, the results do not automatically mean that he must leave office.
Israel follows a parliamentary system in which a government must command the support of a majority of lawmakers. Winning the largest number of seats does not guarantee that a party will form the government.
The Knesset has 120 seats, meaning a party or coalition generally needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a majority.
According to the figures reported by CNN as vote counting approached its conclusion, the political situation was as follows:
Likud Party: Approximately 26 seats, making it the largest individual party.
Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc: Around 53 seats, leaving it short of a parliamentary majority.
Jewish opposition parties: Approximately 48 seats.
Arab parties: A projected combined total of 19 seats.
Majority required: At least 61 seats to form a government.
These figures indicate that Netanyahu’s coalition has lost its majority, but his opponents have not yet demonstrated that they can unite behind a workable alternative.
The opposition’s numerical advantage could become decisive if its different political groups agree to cooperate. However, disagreements over national security, the role of Arab parties and future government policies could prevent that from happening.
For Netanyahu, the immediate priority is clear: prevent his opponents from gathering enough support to establish a new government.
Gadi Eisenkot Emerges as Netanyahu’s Main Rival
Gadi Eisenkot has become a central figure in Israel’s post-election political negotiations.
A former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eisenkot has experience in national security and military leadership. His political campaign has presented him as an alternative to Netanyahu, with a focus on bringing political change to the country.
His party reportedly secured 21 seats, giving him a substantial position within the opposition.
Speaking to supporters after the publication of exit polls, Eisenkot said that voters had chosen change. He subsequently reaffirmed his commitment to changing Israel’s political direction.
However, winning support from voters is only one part of the challenge. Eisenkot must now persuade several parties with different political priorities to cooperate in parliament.
His potential allies include parties that disagree on important questions about religion, security, relations with Arab citizens and the future direction of the Israeli state.
Even if they share a desire to end Netanyahu’s leadership, maintaining unity once negotiations begin could prove difficult.
This creates an important advantage for Netanyahu. His own political allies have remained relatively loyal, while Eisenkot must build a coalition among groups that may not agree on much beyond the need for a change of government.
Arab Parties Could Hold the Key to Israel’s Next Government
One of the most important developments in the election is the projected performance of Israel’s Arab political parties.
The Islamist Raam party and the Joint List, a grouping of several smaller political factions, are projected to win a combined 19 seats. Their support could provide the opposition with the numbers needed to form a government.
Without cooperation from these parties, Eisenkot’s Jewish opposition partners appear to fall well short of the 61-seat threshold.
Why are Arab parties so important?
Israel’s Arab citizens make up a significant part of the population and have their own political parties, which campaign on issues including equality, civil rights, public services, crime prevention and the treatment of Palestinian citizens of Israel.
The reported increase in Arab voter participation may partly reflect frustration with the government’s handling of crime and public safety in Arab communities.
The election therefore highlights the growing importance of Arab voters in determining Israel’s political future.
However, their potential influence has also exposed serious disagreements within the opposition.
Raam and the Joint List: What is the difference?
Raam is an Islamist political party with substantial support among Israel’s Bedouin community. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, made history after the 2021 election by joining an Israeli governing coalition, demonstrating that an Arab party could play a direct role in forming a government.
The Joint List brings together several political factions, including the Communist Hadash, the secular Arab nationalist Ta’al and the nationalist Balad faction.
Although these parties share certain interests, they do not have identical political priorities.
Their participation in government negotiations could be decisive, but their support would need to be matched by a willingness among Jewish opposition parties to work with them.
Opposition leaders disagree over cooperation
Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, has called for the Arab parties to be included in the opposition bloc.
He criticised what he described as Netanyahu’s racial division between Jewish and Arab voters, arguing that parliamentary cooperation should not be determined by ethnicity.
The Joint List has also indicated that it is prepared to cooperate politically and do what it can to bring Netanyahu’s leadership to an end.
However, two influential opposition figures, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, have previously opposed the idea of forming a government that depends on Arab parties.
Their position creates a major obstacle for Eisenkot.
Even if the opposition has enough seats on paper, it may struggle to form a government unless its members agree on whether Arab parties can provide the necessary support.
Netanyahu’s Strategy: Prevent the Opposition From Uniting
Netanyahu has spent decades navigating Israel’s complicated political system. His experience in coalition negotiations could prove valuable during the current deadlock.
According to a source close to the prime minister quoted by CNN, Netanyahu’s main post-election objective is to undermine the legitimacy of cooperation between Jewish opposition parties and Arab political groups.
The strategy would aim to make it more difficult for Eisenkot to gather the support needed to form a government.
Pressure on opposition lawmakers
Netanyahu and his Likud Party could attempt to persuade individual opposition lawmakers not to support an arrangement involving Arab parties.
Even a small number of defections could prevent Eisenkot from reaching the majority required to govern.
Likud has also accused the Arab parties of influencing the election through alleged bribery, threats, violence and forgery. The accusations echo election-fraud claims made by US President Donald Trump, one of Netanyahu’s closest international allies.
The Central Elections Committee said it was examining the complaint. However, it had already dismissed thousands of complaints submitted by different parties on election day.
These allegations should not be treated as established evidence of election fraud. Their significance lies in the political dispute they have created while the country awaits the final results.
Why a small number of lawmakers could make a difference
Israel’s parliamentary arithmetic leaves little room for error.
If Eisenkot’s coalition depends on a narrow majority, even a few lawmakers refusing to support the agreement could bring the entire arrangement to an end.
Netanyahu does not necessarily need to win over the opposition as a whole. He only needs to prevent it from securing a reliable majority.
This is why the coming negotiations are likely to be as important as the election itself.
Could Netanyahu Use a Security Crisis to Delay Political Change?
One of the most serious concerns raised by opposition figures is the possibility that a new security crisis could disrupt the process of forming a government.
According to the CNN report, sources familiar with the political discussions fear that Netanyahu could push for further military escalation if he believes it would help him remain in office.
Iran is a particular focus of these concerns.
Before the election, Netanyahu had reportedly pressed Trump to support a joint attack on Iran. Washington did not proceed at that stage, partly because Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned that such action could interfere with the election.
An Israeli security source told CNN that operational plans were ready and awaiting Trump’s approval, potentially after the US midterm elections.
These claims describe reported discussions and concerns, not confirmation that an attack has been authorised or will take place.
Why Iran matters to Israel’s political crisis
Relations with Iran have long been a major issue in Israeli security policy. Any military escalation could have consequences far beyond the country’s domestic political debate.
A major security emergency could:
Shift public attention away from coalition negotiations.
Increase pressure on political parties to present a united front.
Complicate the work of the incoming government.
Create uncertainty over military and diplomatic priorities.
Delay or disrupt the transfer of political authority.
Opposition figures fear that Netanyahu could use such developments to strengthen his position or make it harder for his rivals to establish a government.
One opposition source told CNN that there was no way to know what Netanyahu would do, while another suggested he would use every available option to avoid leaving the prime minister’s office.
These remain concerns expressed by political sources. They do not establish that Netanyahu has decided to launch military action for domestic political reasons.
Nevertheless, the possibility of renewed confrontation with Iran adds another layer of uncertainty to Israel’s post-election situation.
Why Netanyahu Is Still Difficult to Remove
Despite his coalition’s setback, Netanyahu retains several advantages.
First, Likud remains the largest party in the Knesset. Second, his right-wing allies have shown considerable loyalty. Third, the opposition is divided over the very arrangements that could allow it to take power.
Netanyahu also has experience in Israel’s coalition-based political system. He understands how party negotiations, cabinet appointments and parliamentary procedures can determine the outcome of a political crisis.
For his opponents, the challenge is more complicated.
Eisenkot must satisfy parties with different views on national security, economic policy, religious affairs and cooperation with Arab lawmakers. An agreement that pleases one group could alienate another.
This means the opposition must balance two difficult objectives: removing Netanyahu and building a government capable of surviving after he leaves office.
A coalition that can defeat Netanyahu in parliament might still struggle to govern effectively if its members cannot agree on major policy questions.
What Happens Next? Israel’s Government Formation Process Explained
The final election figures and the decisions made by Israel’s political leaders will determine the next stage.
The election process is followed by a formal procedure designed to identify a candidate capable of forming a government.
1. Final votes must be counted
The Central Elections Committee is expected to complete the main count before processing additional ballots.
These include double-envelope ballots submitted by soldiers, prisoners, hospital patients and staff, diplomats overseas and voters with disabilities.
The committee estimated that between 430,000 and 480,000 such ballots were involved. Because these votes can affect more than ten parliamentary seats, they could influence the final distribution of power.
The ballots undergo a separate verification process before the official results are confirmed.
2. President Isaac Herzog consults political parties
Once the results are established, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult the elected parties about whom they recommend as prime minister.
He must then select the candidate he believes has the strongest chance of securing the support needed to form a government.
This person does not automatically have to lead the largest party.
Consequently, Eisenkot could receive the initial mandate even though Likud has more seats than his party, provided the consultations demonstrate that he has the more realistic path to a majority.
3. The chosen candidate begins coalition negotiations
The candidate selected by the president normally receives 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of up to 14 additional days.
During this period, the candidate must negotiate with other parties over a range of issues, including:
Cabinet positions and ministerial responsibilities.
Government budgets and spending priorities.
National security and defence policy.
Religious and social legislation.
Civil rights and public services.
The broad political programme of the new administration.
These negotiations can be difficult because smaller parties often seek significant concessions in exchange for their support.
4. Another candidate may receive a chance
If the first candidate fails, the mandate can pass to another candidate under Israel’s government formation rules.
That candidate receives a further opportunity to negotiate a coalition.
If the subsequent attempts also fail, lawmakers may have a limited opportunity to propose an alternative candidate. If no viable government emerges, the country could face another election.
This process creates several possible paths forward, none of which guarantees an immediate end to Netanyahu’s leadership.
Why Netanyahu Could Remain Prime Minister Even if He Loses the Political Battle
A caretaker government is responsible for continuing essential government functions while the political parties attempt to form a new administration.
As caretaker prime minister, Netanyahu could remain in office throughout a prolonged period of negotiations.
This creates a significant advantage for him.
If Eisenkot receives the first mandate but fails to form a government, Netanyahu may benefit from the delay. If subsequent negotiations also collapse and another election becomes necessary, Netanyahu could continue serving as caretaker prime minister during the intervening period.
However, remaining in office as caretaker does not mean that Netanyahu has secured a fresh political mandate or won the election.
It would simply mean that Israel’s political system has not yet produced a replacement government.
For Netanyahu, time could be valuable. For the opposition, every additional week of uncertainty would increase the pressure to find common ground.
Eisenkot’s Alternative Strategy: Challenge Netanyahu in Parliament
Even if Eisenkot cannot form a government immediately, the opposition may still have ways to limit Netanyahu’s influence.
With a combined parliamentary majority, opposition parties could seek changes to important Knesset positions, including the parliamentary speaker, subject to the relevant procedural requirements.
They could also attempt to advance legislation, scrutinise government decisions and use parliamentary committees to challenge the caretaker administration.
Such steps would not necessarily remove Netanyahu from office, but they could reduce his political room for manoeuvre.
However, the opposition would still need to maintain unity.
Its different parties may agree that Netanyahu should leave office, yet disagree over the policies that should replace his government’s programme.
A disagreement over one important appointment or legislative proposal could expose these divisions and weaken the opposition’s bargaining position.
Eisenkot therefore faces a difficult choice: push ahead with an ambitious plan for political change or make compromises to keep the opposition together.
Could Israel Form a National Unity Government?
With neither major bloc holding a clear majority, another possibility is a national unity government.
Such an arrangement would bring together political rivals in an attempt to create a government with broader parliamentary support.
President Isaac Herzog has urged party leaders to approach consultations with an open mind and stressed the importance of avoiding another election.
A unity government could offer several advantages:
It might reduce the risk of another prolonged political deadlock.
It could provide a broader parliamentary base for major decisions.
It might make it easier to address urgent national security and economic issues.
It could reduce the immediate pressure for another election.
However, a unity agreement would require serious compromises from the parties involved.
Eisenkot and Netanyahu represent competing political visions, while their respective allies have their own interests and demands. Questions about the premiership, cabinet positions and government policy could make an agreement difficult to negotiate.
A unity government is therefore one possible outcome, rather than a guaranteed solution.
Three Possible Outcomes for Netanyahu’s Political Future
The election has created several plausible scenarios for Israel.
Scenario 1: Eisenkot forms a new government
Eisenkot could secure the support of the Jewish opposition parties and obtain backing from the Arab parties.
If enough lawmakers agree to cooperate, he could reach the 61-seat threshold and become prime minister.
This would mark a major political setback for Netanyahu and end his current period in office.
The main challenge would be keeping the coalition stable after it had been formed.
Scenario 2: Netanyahu blocks the opposition and remains in power
Netanyahu could prevent Eisenkot from securing a majority by exploiting disagreements among opposition parties.
If the coalition negotiations fail, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister while the country waits for another attempt to form a government or prepares for another election.
His continued presence in office would demonstrate once again how difficult it can be to remove a leader in a fragmented parliamentary system.
Scenario 3: Israel heads towards another election
If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can form a government, the country may have to return to the polls.
Another election would prolong political uncertainty and create another campaign in which both sides attempt to win over undecided voters.
For Netanyahu, it could offer another opportunity to recover lost support. For Eisenkot, it could provide a chance to strengthen the opposition or expose its divisions further.
The outcome would depend on voter behaviour, the performance of the political parties and the issues dominating the campaign.
Conclusion: Is This Finally the End of Netanyahu’s Political Era?
Benjamin Netanyahu has survived numerous political challenges, and the 2026 Israeli election has not yet brought his career to a definitive conclusion.
His Likud Party remains the largest individual party in parliament, but his right-wing bloc has fallen short of a majority. Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have a potential route to power if they can agree on a coalition.
The Arab parties could prove decisive, yet their involvement remains controversial among some of Eisenkot’s potential partners. At the same time, concerns about renewed tensions with Iran and the possibility of another election have added to the uncertainty.
The next stage will depend on the final vote count, President Isaac Herzog’s consultations and the ability of political leaders to negotiate a workable agreement.
For Netanyahu, the immediate challenge is to prevent his rivals from forming a government. For Eisenkot, it is to turn a promising electoral position into a stable parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu has not won, but he has not been defeated either. His political future now depends less on the size of his own party than on whether his opponents can overcome their differences and agree on who should lead Israel next.
Only when a new government is successfully formed—or another election becomes unavoidable—will it become clear whether Israel’s ultimate political survivor has finally reached the end of his long run.
References and Sources
The article has been rewritten using the supplied report and its linked CNN coverage. For further information, consult the following sources:
CNN – Israel Election Results and Political Analysis: Israel election results and their implications for Netanyahu
CNN – Election Deadlock and Leadership Contest: Video report on Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot and Israel’s election
CNN – Gadi Eisenkot’s Political Challenge: Background on Netanyahu’s main challenger
Editorial note: The seat totals, allegations and political developments described above reflect the supplied report’s account of preliminary results as of 28 October 2026. They should be checked against the final certified election results and subsequent official announcements before publication.
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