The NBA Playoffs 2025 have officially tipped off, and the first round is already creating buzz in the betting world. Sports analysts and fans alike are keeping a close eye on the early matchups and where the betting value lies.
Thanks to the reliable SportsLine computer model, which has delivered consistent profits over the years, basketball enthusiasts now have some fresh insights into the best bets for the opening round. Here’s a detailed breakdown of where the value lies and which underdogs could spring a surprise.
Overview of the 2025 NBA Playoff First Round
As the playoff schedule begins, fans and punters can look forward to a thrilling set of matchups. With odds now available across major sportsbooks, here’s how things currently stand:
Boston Celtics are heavy favourites at -8000 to beat the Orlando Magic.
Cleveland Cavaliers are priced at -4000 against Miami Heat.
Oklahoma City Thunder also sit at -4000 to get past the Memphis Grizzlies.
These three teams are considered strong favourites to advance. However, not all series are as straightforward – and this is where savvy bettors can find opportunity.
Why Trust the SportsLine Model?
The SportsLine projection model has an impressive track record:
Over $10,000 profit for $100 bettors on top NBA picks over the last 6+ seasons.
Enters the 2025 Playoffs on a 156-115 run on top-rated NBA bets.
Offers insights not just on match winners, but also series spreads, over/unders, and player props.
With that in mind, let’s dive into three series bets that the model finds especially promising.
Detroit Pistons to Cover the Spread vs. New York Knicks
Best Bet: Pistons +2.5 Games
Odds: -155 at DraftKings
Once seen as the NBA’s bottom team, the Detroit Pistons have completed a stunning turnaround this season – the sixth-largest in league history.
Why the Pistons Could Surprise:
3 wins over the Knicks during the regular season.
Made playoffs for the first time since 2019.
Cade Cunningham is in top form, averaging 26.1 points per game, including 30.8 points against the Knicks.
Backed by seasoned players like Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Malik Beasley.
Analyst Stephen Oh explains:
“Statistically, Detroit is far better – especially in 3-point differential on the road. This series will be closer than oddsmakers think.”
Model Insights:
76.4% chance to cover the spread (vs. implied 60.1%).
Best odds for this prop currently at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Timberwolves Tipped to Upset Lakers
Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves to Win Series
Odds: +160 at DraftKings
Despite the Lakers’ star-studded lineup, the Timberwolves have the form and depth to pull off a first-round upset.
Key Factors:
Minnesota finished the season strong with a 17-4 record.
The Lakers went 19-13 since acquiring Luka Doncic.
Anthony Edwards is emerging as a true star, averaging 27.6 points per game.
Julius Randle missed their earlier loss to LA – his return boosts Minnesota’s chances.
Oh’s Take:
“While the Lakers have three stars, the Wolves have multiple players capable of draining six 3-pointers. Their depth offers real value here.”
Model Insights:
Minnesota wins 47.4% of simulations.
The current price at +160 creates good value.
Milwaukee Bucks to Beat Indiana Pacers
Best Bet: Bucks to Win Series
Odds: +145 at BetMGM
Though the Pacers ended the regular season with a better record, the Bucks bring crucial postseason experience and a strong finish to the table.
Why Milwaukee Has the Edge:
Won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups vs. Indiana.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is back in dominant form, averaging a triple-double in April.
Closed the season on an eight-game winning streak.
Giannis’ all-around game – scoring, rebounding, and facilitating – gives the Bucks two star-calibre playmakers in one.
Oh’s Analysis:
“Giannis is doing it all – defending, scoring, playmaking. The Bucks have the two best players in this series.”
Model Recommendation:
Was even more attractive at +180 earlier, but still holds thin value at +145 via BetMGM.
Bonus Tips: Player Prop Experts
Looking for more specialised bets? SportsLine’s expert analysts also recommend top player prop picks:
Alex Selesnick has a 125-86 record, returning +1820 units over his last 211 props.
Bruce Marshall stands at 93-67-1, netting +1830 units on recent NBA selections.
For more prop bets and expert picks, visit SportsLine.com for the latest updates.
Final Thoughts
While top seeds like Boston and Cleveland are near-certainties to advance, series like Pistons vs. Knicks, Timberwolves vs. Lakers, and Bucks vs. Pacers offer bettors real value.
If you’re planning to place a bet this playoff season:
Look beyond just series winners.
Consider spreads, game totals, and player props.
Follow proven models and expert advice.
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