Donald Trump’s new stance on Ukraine could reshape the war’s trajectory – but will Vladimir Putin take it seriously?
Trump’s Message: A New Warning to Putin
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a bold step in his approach to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, signalling a major policy shift that could have real consequences for both Ukraine and Russia.
Speaking from the Oval Office alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump issued a clear warning to Vladimir Putin: Make a peace deal within 50 days or face heavy tariffs.
While the statement was dramatic, many questions remain — particularly around how Putin will react, and whether this marks a lasting change in U.S. policy under Trump.
A Big Change: Military Aid and NATO Support
The most striking development wasn’t just Trump’s tariff threat — it was his new stance on military support for Ukraine.
For months, Trump had hinted at cutting off U.S. aid to Ukraine. But in a surprising move, he pledged billions in weapons, saying European NATO members would now pay for U.S. arms to be sent to Kyiv.
Key points from Trump and Rutte’s announcement:
European allies will buy U.S.-made weapons on Ukraine’s behalf.
Ukraine will receive a “massive” influx of equipment, including ammunition and missiles.
NATO members can rush their own weapons to Ukraine and feel confident the U.S. will restock their supplies.
Trump confirmed the inclusion of Patriot missile defence systems, essential for countering Russia’s increasing air attacks.
From Skepticism to Support: A Shift in Trump’s Tone
Trump’s language during this Oval Office meeting was far more supportive of Ukraine than in past months.
In contrast to a previous February meeting where he openly criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump now praised Ukraine as “courageous” and commended European allies for their unity and spirit.
He even appeared more critical of Putin than before, saying:
“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy… He’s fooled a lot of people.”
Trump described how his supposedly “friendly” calls with Putin were followed by Russian missile strikes:
“I’d hang up thinking we had a nice chat, and then missiles would hit Kyiv. After a few times, you realise the talk means nothing.”
Will Putin Take This Threat Seriously?
Despite the tougher talk, analysts remain cautious. The details of the new weapons deal are still being worked out. U.S. officials say the Pentagon is yet to finalise the full list of equipment.
Moreover, the tariff threat is still vague. Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Russia if a peace deal isn’t made within 50 days. But many experts doubt such measures will be easy to enforce.
Why 50 Days?
Speculation suggests this window aligns with Russia’s current summer offensive.
Reports from Axios claim Putin told Trump during a recent call that he plans to intensify military efforts over the next 60 days.
The Trump team may be hoping Putin will be forced to negotiate once the offensive runs its course — especially if it falters.
Expert View: Could Trump Pressure Work?
Some Russian insiders aren’t convinced Trump will hold the line.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a respected Russian analyst and founder of R.Politik, said that many in the Kremlin believe Trump’s tough stance is only temporary.
“If this pressure fails quickly — as expected — Trump will likely shift to diplomacy and pressure Ukraine to compromise,” she wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
Her insight reflects a wider belief within the Russian elite: Trump’s patience is limited, and his focus on deal-making may still favour Russian interests in the long run.
What’s Next for Ukraine?
Ukraine now faces a potentially significant increase in support — but the situation remains fragile.
What Ukraine Might Gain:
Advanced missile systems
Increased ammunition supplies
Faster delivery of NATO equipment
Possible diplomatic leverage if Russia feels pressured
But Also:
Uncertainty about long-term U.S. support
Doubts about Trump’s follow-through
Dependence on Europe to fund arms
Putin, for now, is likely to keep pushing hard militarily. He believes he’s winning, and only a shift in battlefield results or external pressure might push him toward serious negotiations.
Final Thoughts
Trump’s new approach to the war in Ukraine is certainly louder and more forceful, but whether it becomes effective and lasting policy is still unclear. For now, the message to Putin is simple: Make a deal — or face consequences.
The next few weeks will show us whether this shift is a real turning point, or just another strategic bluff in a complex geopolitical game.
Sources:
White House Official Statements (July 2025)
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