Early US Intelligence Suggests Iran’s Nuclear Programme Still Largely Intact After Strikes
Despite recent US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, early intelligence assessments reveal the damage may not be as severe as initially claimed by officials.
Summary of Events
The United States launched targeted airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.
These strikes were part of a coordinated operation involving both US and Israeli forces.
Early assessments suggest the strikes caused significant structural damage but did not destroy the core of Iran’s nuclear programme.
What the Intelligence Says
According to an early report from the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the bombing campaign did not obliterate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Instead, the strikes are believed to have only delayed Iran’s programme by a few months at most.
Key Takeaways from the Assessment:
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium remains untouched.
Most of the centrifuges used for uranium enrichment were not destroyed.
Some uranium may have been relocated before the attack.
Damage was largely limited to above-ground infrastructure, such as power supplies and uranium processing units.
Underground facilities like Fordow and Natanz remain structurally intact.
The US Central Command conducted a battle damage assessment following the operation, which formed the basis of this intelligence report.
“The strikes have set Iran back a few months, at best,” said one official familiar with the classified report.
The White House Response
The White House has strongly rejected the findings, labelling the leaked assessment as inaccurate and politically motivated.
Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, said:
“This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong… The leaking of this assessment is a clear attempt to discredit President Trump and our brave pilots.”
President Trump, currently attending the NATO Summit in the Netherlands, posted on Truth Social calling the mission:
“One of the most successful military strikes in history… The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed!”
Israeli Involvement and Reaction
Israel, which conducted its own strikes prior to the US operation, had previously stated that Iran’s programme was already set back by two years. However, even Israeli intelligence sources have privately confirmed the US bombs didn’t fully destroy the most fortified nuclear facilities.
Struck Sites Include:
Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant
Natanz Enrichment Complex
Isfahan Nuclear Site
Despite heavy bombing with 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs, the underground sections of these sites are largely intact, according to several analysts.
Trump and Hegseth Stand Firm
Both President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth continue to claim the strikes were a total success.
Hegseth commented:
“The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran.”
He also criticised the leak of the DIA report, suggesting it was politically driven and noted an FBI investigation is underway to find the source.
Military and Political Caution
Despite strong rhetoric from Trump’s team, several high-ranking officials urged caution in evaluating the full impact.
Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it’s “too early to tell” if Iran retains nuclear capability.
Rep. Michael McCaul, a senior Republican on foreign affairs, admitted the plan was never meant to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Expert Opinions and Satellite Analysis
Jeffrey Lewis, weapons expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the bombed areas. His analysis supports the claim that Iran’s nuclear programme was not eliminated.
“Several key underground nuclear facilities remain standing and could serve as the foundation for quickly rebuilding Iran’s programme,” he said.
Ceasefire and Unanswered Questions
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced shortly after the strikes.
Some intelligence suggests Iran has secret nuclear sites that were not targeted and may still be operational.
The briefings for US lawmakers were delayed without explanation, raising further concerns.
Democratic Congressman Pat Ryan posted:
“Trump just cancelled a classified House briefing… because they know they can’t back up his claims.”
Technical Limitations: Why the Strikes Fell Short
The Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs used in the operation are powerful but still struggle to destroy deeply buried facilities like those at Fordow and Isfahan.
Isfahan was targeted with Tomahawk missiles, not bunker-buster bombs, due to its extreme depth.
Some officials believe Iran was able to prepare in advance and relocate sensitive material before the strikes.
Conclusion: Setback, But Not Destruction
While the US and Israeli military strikes dealt a blow to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, early assessments do not support claims of “total obliteration.”
Aboveground damage was extensive.
Underground facilities mostly survived.
Iran’s uranium stockpile and technical capacity may allow it to rebuild.
The true impact remains uncertain and will become clearer in the coming weeks as further intelligence is gathered.
Sources:
CNN Exclusive Report: CNN
White House & Defence Statements via CNN interviews
Satellite Analysis by Middlebury Institute of International Studies
Congressional Comments from Rep. Pat Ryan and Rep. Michael McCaul